[USA TN] [H] MSI 2070 Gaming Z [W] PayPal
2021.09.20 13:04 King420Chevy [USA TN] [H] MSI 2070 Gaming Z [W] PayPal
Hello all, selling my MSI 2070 Gaming Z as I upgraded. I recently repasted the gpu as I have been using it for over 3 years now. I'm one of those people that takes PC apart for annual cleaning. Non smoking and non pet house hold.
Selling for $600 shipped.
As always, comment PM before messaging.
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2021.09.20 13:04 orihcsro Google: Indische Wettbewerbshüter unterstellen Missbrauch der Marktmacht
2021.09.20 13:04 ICallAllCats_Cat_ With apologies to Mr. Gase: An analysis of how much head coaches affect fantasy points
TL;DR: Your least favorite coach is probably not as bad for fantasy as you think. Or at least, their replacement will probably not be that much better. Some coaches might be better or worse than others for fantasy (remember Jeff Fisher?), but there's not actually enough data to support any statistical arguments. I'm going to make some wild accusations anyway, so enjoy! Take this analysis for what it is: a man trying to come to grips with the existence of Urban Meyer.
My wife and brother are saints. They have not yet killed me because they're so sick of hearing my anti-coach rants. Talking points (shouting points?) include:
- This has the most job security of any job EVER! If you're a head coach (HC), offensive coordinator (OC), or defensive coordinator (DC) it doesn't matter how bad you are, you can always find a team to pick you up for one of these positions
- They're all meathead idiots! They EAT COFFEE GROUNDS and CRAP FOOTBALL!!! And think that they will TOUGHEN UP THIS TEAM as if these guys need to be toughened up. Pro players don't need to be "tougher", they need a coach to treat them like professionals and plan to their strengths!
- They're egotistical fools! If you're HC, don't call your own game! Get an OC you can trust and work with him! He's probably an idiot, too, but at least you can focus on your part of the job during a game. Also: your precious SYSTEM is dumb! Stop trying to cram players into your system. Look at who you have, coach them to be better, and change your plan accordingly.
... and so on. I recognize that this is a hard job, and that I wouldn't be good at it, but also MANY OF THEM AREN'T GOOD EITHER AND YET THE COACHING CAROUSEL JUST KEEPS GOING 'ROUND AND 'ROUND!
Okay. I'll stop now.
Adam Gase was actually the motivation for this. When he left Miami some of his players were quite a bit better for fantasy (and for real football), and when he left the Jets... well they're still not fabulous, but I have a bit of hope for them. But is that hope founded in anything beyond my hatred for Gase? Is there a reason to think that these players will get a huge fantasy boost with a new coach? We often see these changes in win/loss records and point differentials, but this is a fantasy subreddit, so I wanted to try to quantify a coach's contribution to fantasy teams.
- I pulled down data from TheHuddle.com Coaching Change Tracker for who was the HC, OC, and DC for each team since 2013. Some coaches were changed mid-season, and that's something we'll just have to live with. I don't have weekly coaching data. If anyone can share that I'd love it, but without it, a year-long summary will have to do.
- R package NFLFastR for player and team fantasy points. I summed up a team's total fantasy points at the QB, RB, WR, and TE positions. I don't care about defense here.
I took the yearly fantasy output for each team and found which teams had more than 1 coach. No telling what Belichick and Andy Reid's contributions are because they've been around so long. I suspect positive contributions for those two (see, e.g., their team records the last decade. I also filtered for coaches that had 3 or more years as a head coach of 1 or more teams. Matt LaFleur might be a good or bad HC, but since he's only been HC for two complete years he gets a pass. For now...
This left me with 33 coaches. I calculated the change in fantasy points when each coach left/arrived at a team. I tried two analysis methods:
- Linear regressions with coach and team as factors
- Just finding the teams these coaches were on, defining years with the coach in question and years without and averaging across these.
Both methods gave similar results with just a few fantasy points difference in some cases. It was nice to get confirmation, and I'm not too worried about my statistical methodology. I am concerned that I don't have enough data to really point to anyone in particular, but we've come to far to really worry about that. On to the results!
The table below shows the change in total fantasy points that a team had in a year when the coach arrived or left. Negative means the team had fewer fantasy points when they were there and positive means the team had more
. I arranged the results by absolute value of the change in fantasy points, not least because you'll see that some of these guys are intimately linked. To give you a sense of scale, teams average about 1100 points a year so 50 points wouldn't really be that much, but 500 would.
A few coaches switched two teams (Gase, Arians, Rivera, McCarthy, Kelly) so I averaged across both changes. I care about the coach, not the team. Table 1: Change in total team fantasy points under different head coaches
|Teams the coach left/arrived ||Head Coach ||Change in fantasy points |
|LAR ||Sean McVay ||492 |
| ||Jeff Fisher ||-492 |
|SF ||Kyle Shanahan ||250 |
|IND ||Frank Reich ||231 |
| ||Chuck Pagano ||-231 |
|NYG ||Tom Coughlin ||192 |
|ARI, TB ||Bruce Arians ||191 |
|CLE ||Hue Jackson ||-171 |
|TlEN ||Mike Vrabel ||171 |
|TB ||Dirk Koetter ||-166 |
|DEN ||Gary Kubiak ||148 |
|PHI, SF ||Chip Kelly ||-132 |
|NYJ ||Todd Bowles ||132 |
|PHI ||Doug Pederson ||119 |
|CHI ||Matt Nagy ||115 |
| ||John Fox ||-115 |
|CIN ||Marvin Lewis ||99 |
|CAR, WAS ||Ron Rivera ||91 |
|LAC ||Anthony Lynn ||66 |
| ||Mike McCoy ||-66 |
|DET ||Matt Patricia ||-66 |
| ||Jim Caldwell ||66 |
|MIA, NYJ ||Adam Gase ||-56 |
|MIA ||Joe Philbin ||50 |
|LV ||Jon Gruden ||-36 |
| ||Jack Del Rio ||36 |
|JAC ||Doug Marrone ||29 |
| ||Gus Bradley ||-29 |
|DAL, GB ||Mike McCarthy ||20 |
|DAL ||Jason Garrett ||-14 |
|WAS ||Jay Gruden ||7 |
|BUF ||Sean McDermott ||4 |
| ||Rex Ryan ||-4 |
First off: I'm sorry, Mr. Gase. You were not good for your teams and probably caused a loss of about 56 fantasy points per season over your replacement. But you could have been much worse. You could have been Jeff Fisher. When Jeff Fisher left and Sean McVay took over the Rams scored almost 500 more fantasy points on average.
Speaking of Jeff Fisher, this is a good time to bring up a limitation of this data: How much of that 492 point swing was Jeff Fisher being terrible and how much was Sean McVay being good? There are a few of these pairs (Patricia/Caldwell, Reich/Pagano, Nagy/Fox, Gruden/Del Rio) that we really can't separate so matter how much I'd love to because I only have enough data to show the difference between those two. Heck, for all I know, Jeff Fisher was 200 points better than someone else would have been and McVay is actually almost 700 points than that!
No. No it's not that. Their fantasy points per season were awful.
I really think my best bet for now is to compare between coaches and not to, say, the league average. I could compare every coach to the league average, but I'm not sure how much of that difference would be from the coach and how much from the players. It's easier to see what happens when a coach leaves even though it could take time for the team to get itself back together after the lingering decisions from the previous coach (c.f. O'Brien, Bill).
Although I'm trying to compare coaches among each other it's probably instructive at this point to just show you the top and bottom coaches in terms of average team fantasy points:
Table 2: Head Coaches with BOTTOM 5 total team fantasy points per year
|Head coach ||Average fantasy points per season |
|Jeff Fisher ||753 |
|Adam Gase ||887 |
|John Fox ||899 |
|Hue Jackson ||900 |
|Todd Bowles ||921 |
Table 3: Head Coaches with TOP 5 total team fantasy points per year
|Head coach ||Average fantasy points per season |
|Bill Belichick ||1348 |
|Andy Reid ||1346 |
|Sean Payton ||1323 |
|Sean McVay ||1245 |
|Bruce Arians ||1234 |
Looking at the bottom 5, two of them were from the Jets (Gase and Bowles). So while Gase was certainly a step down from Bowles, Bowles wasn't exactly racking up fantasy points either. Because multiple Jets coaches were so bad, Gase only shows up as a bad (but not embarrassingly bad) -56 points in Table 1. It's hard to stay extra-mad about him dragging down an already ineffective team. I'll go back to being regular-mad about it.
When you look at that top 5 you'll be *shocked* to hear that the coaches I couldn't evaluate (because they haven't switched teams) tended to have the most fantasy points per season. Belichick, Reid, and Payton are are all way up there in fantasy points per season (all above 1300 fantasy points a season). It's like... good coaches don't get fired? And get to keep being good coaches for years? Would that even make sense? I've been staring at bad coaches for so long I've forgotten who else is out there.
What does this mean for fantasy?
- First, your least favorite coach is probably only a little worse than his replacement. 50 or 60 points isn't a ton and is 5-10% of the total points a team gets every season (at the QB, RB, WE, and TE positions).
- Second, don't be overly hopeful at the draft about a new coach, and don't overvalue that change. Yes, having Brian Flores or Robert Saleh take over for Adam Gase is a good thing for fantasy values, but is probably only a few more points over the whole season divvied up across all positions. Don't, for instance, be too excited to finally get a piece of that burgeoning Jets backfield. You *might* get a McVay, but you're probably getting a Flores: better, but not the next Belichick or Reid.
These guys on the coaching carousel are basically all replacement-level coaches. In some ways that makes me angrier; why are GMs so willing to just shuffle around the same bad ideas in hopes that *this time* it works? The answer might be what happens with the alternative. When you bring in a HOT NEW COLLEGE COACH with FRESH IDEAS they're usually pretty terrible. Drew Magary
just talked about it this week. He highlighted all the things I've been saying: that these guys are trying to motivate professionals like they're college kids, that their egos get in the way, and that this leads to the players hating them and losing faith. I'M LOOKING AT YOU, URBAN MEYER.
Honestly, this analysis was more therapy for me than anything else. I came in with a huge chip on my shoulder about coaches and found that although some of them might demonstrably suck at coaching real football and their players might hate them, there's not too much to fear for fantasy values. The points will (mostly) be there. And, if you can hold your breath for about 2 years they'll be on to another team and some other JAG (formerly a OC or DC for another team or maybe just the guy that gets Sean McVay's coffee) will be in to either boost or drop your team's fantasy output by 5%.
So hang in there, James Robinson. I miss you.
- I have OC and DC data as well. I've always wanted to see if I could add DC to my already wildly successful DST models. I suspect it won't make much difference and will be like the HC thing: good DCs stay on, keep being good and producing good fantasy DSTs, and bad ones shuffle around too quickly for their badness to be statistically significant. But I'll try it out some time.
- Would it be interesting to see if certain OCs call more runs or passes? Maybe some would try to target WRs or TEs or RBs more? Or would that be more player-dependent? I'm not even sure what the breakdown looks like without accounting for OC, so that's probably a first step.
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2021.09.20 13:04 RBanditAU How good is the costume on my ninja Venusaur?!
2021.09.20 13:04 Aishwakirti What is CRM Software ?
What is CRM and How it is beneficial for me?
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2021.09.20 13:04 ShortAlgo $NVTA Awaiting Short signal. Trading Simplified at UltraAlgo.com!
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2021.09.20 13:04 orihcsro Windows 11: VirtualBox arbeitet an einer Lösung zur Virtualisierung
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2021.09.20 13:04 Fiendishfrenzy Noticed changes to myssa website login
So, went to login today, and noticed it had two new login buttons, as well as the user name and password section. But the standard login (user name and pass) had bold text above it- "FOR ACCOUNTS CREATED BEFORE SEPTEMBER 18, 2021"
I backed out, out or curiosity and clicked create new. Sure enough, just the 2 new options available. Searched the web for info on the change and came up empty.
Will I be forced to migrate to these new versions? Whats the reason for these changes? Thanks all
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2021.09.20 13:04 ShortAlgo $NUVA Awaiting Short signal. Trading Simplified at UltraAlgo.com!
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